JL Window Sticker and Build Sheet Order Tracking

[sachatur]

So here’s something I noticed.

On the Monroney sticker, there’s this little set of numbers near the bottom, under a heading labeled S.L.
Curiously, when I first saw my sticker yesterday, the numbers there were 0427-0. And when I looked at the sticker again just now, the numbers there are 0428-3.
Anyway, I was curious what the numbers were on 4xe Rubicons on the Jeep website that Jeep says are on lots at dealerships near me (DC,MD,VA), and I saw a lot of them had 0423-1.
If, and that’s a pretty big if, those numbers are in something like date-shift format, then 4xe Rubicons built as late as 04/23 are already on dealer lots in my area!

Am I reading too much into those numbers?

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[Snazzberry]

Ordered 3/17
Shipping status 4/13 or 4/14
Picked up 4/30

JLUR, 2.0, snazzberry, dual doors and everything else except advanced safety

 

[johnnychemo]

Ordered 4/9, have spent the last few weeks in the "Parts are allocated but build not yet scheduled" Jeep Chat purgatory, but today (5/1) I got the magic message that "your vehicle is currently in the trim stage of the build process. Currently no Dealer ETA has been provided. "

Dealer told me a couple weeks ago that they were given an estimated ship date of 5/5, so who knows - they may hit that target.

 

[Robnfl]

Ordered JLURD 4/24/21
VIN ~ 4/27/21
Info that FCA gave my dealer says estimated ship date of 5/3/21.

LOL, someone was high when they posted that!

So much for under promising and over delivering!

 

[Tab]

Ordered 4/9, have spent the last few weeks in the "Parts are allocated but build not yet scheduled" Jeep Chat purgatory, but today (5/1) I got the magic message that "your vehicle is currently in the trim stage of the build process. Currently no Dealer ETA has been provided. "

Dealer told me a couple weeks ago that they were given an estimated ship date of 5/5, so who knows - they may hit that target.

I ordered mine on 4/12, it has been released for delivery with est eta of 4/26-5/10. My dealer said they expect it next week

 

[Tab]

Ordered JLURD 4/24/21
VIN ~ 4/27/21
Info that FCA gave my dealer says estimated ship date of 5/3/21.

LOL, someone was high when they posted that!

So much for under promising and over delivering!

WOW that would be awesome if they delivered it that quick with an order date of 4/24!

 

[johnnychemo]

I ordered mine on 4/12, it has been released for delivery with est eta of 4/26-5/10. My dealer said they expect it next week

I'm only a little jealous!

 

[Robnfl]

WOW that would be awesome if they delivered it that quick with an order date of 4/24!

Yeah...I'm not very optimistic!

 

[thepriceisright]

Just got this from the dealer! They’re starting PDI so I can pick it up Monday.

 

[MaligatorMom]

Ordered JLURD 4/24/21
VIN ~ 4/27/21
Info that FCA gave my dealer says estimated ship date of 5/3/21.

LOL, someone was high when they posted that!

So much for under promising and over delivering!

Ordered my first wrangler the day before you and my estimated ship date is 5/4/21 … my birthday is the 16th and I would be ecstatic if it was here for that!! But not holding my breathe

 

[hydro21]

Ordered my 80th Anniversary JLU on 4/7
Vin# 4/10
Paint stage 4/26
KZ status 4/28
Dealer notified me this morning (5/1) that it was loaded on a truck at 5:33pm yesterday and should be delivered over the weekend.
I can't wait!!!! :D
My original estimated ship date was 4/27, so it was super close to that time frame...

 

[nomographer]

Weekly update. Most seem to be getting built in the 30--40 day window.

Summary

Total records	3399
Completed	2738
Build started	1737

Past Year

Request-to-Build days	Build-to-Sticker days	Request-to-Sticker days
30.3	10.8	46.2	Overall
28.0			Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited Rhd
29.9	5.7	41.7	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport Unlimited
31.6	5.3	43.4	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited
28.2	6.9	43.9	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited
32.1	6.5	44.0	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport
33.7	9.4	45.7	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon
34.0	4.8	49.0	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport Unlimited Rhd
29.3	22.9	57.0	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited 4xe Sport
30.0	25.6	57.3	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 4xe Sport
61.4	15.9	83.1	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 392
29.3	6.8	43.8	Engine 3.0l Turbo
30.8	7.3	44.7	Engine 3.6l Pentastar
29.8	15.5	49.1	Engine 2.0l Turbo
61.4	15.9	83.1	Engine 6.4l Hemi
29.3	6.5	43.5	Doors 4
32.7	7.9	45.3	Doors 2

Lag
(Relative to model average)
(Property appears in >2% of builds)
(Request-to-Sticker more than 2.0 days from average)
(Properties do not necessary cause delays; a related feature may be the culprit)

Request-to-Build	Build-to-Sticker	Request-to-Sticker
-3.95	-0.51	-4.14	18x7.5 Granite Crystal Alum Wheels
-0.16	-0.27	-2.97	Mopar Black Tubular Side Steps
-1.68	0.93	-2.72	Mopar Grab Handle Kit
-1.68	0.93	-2.72	Front Mopar Grab Handles
-1.56	0.79	-2.53	Rear Mopar Grab Handles
-1.68	-1.39	-2.19	3.6l V6 24v Vvt Etorque Engine Upg I
0.32	3.94	-2.09	Mopar Hd Rock Slider W/step Assist
0.00	0.00	0.00	Spring - Left Front
1.68	1.38	2.86	Engine Block Heater
-0.56	2.87	3.25	Mopar Satin Black Grille
3.58	3.01	4.33	All Manual Transmissions
3.56	3.01	4.33	3.6l V6 24v Vvt Engine Upg I W/ess
9.87	2.55	6.16	D1-to-d Regress

Open Orders
Days since request, no build sheet nor sticker, request in the last 100 days
p20: 10
p40: 19
p60: 32
p80: 54
p90: 75
p95: 81
p100: 99

 

[nomographer]

I've never been quite happy with the high percentiles for the open orders from the last 100 days, so I decided I would do some more looking.

First, of all orders ever that actually post a build or sticker, here's the percentage taking more than a given number of days:

Some of the data shows very high numbers (7348 days for one of them!), which strongly suggests data quality issues. In particular, the "request dates" entered at registration are entirely voluntary and probably off by a few days for most orders. Some are even in the future, suggesting people don't even know what year they placed their order.

There are only 16 orders (in the data I've gathered from 2700 cryptostickers orders, or 0.58%) that took more than 180 days to show an update. At six months, it's not impossible in the last year given manufacturing delays and world crises, but everything above that is likely an outlier of some sort.

As far as "what properties are there for orders taking between 100 and 180 days", refer first to the usual chart of "Lag" in the weekly post, and otherwise I'll try get any additional details in a digestible fashion here in my spare time.

 

[Woody77]

Ordered my 80th Anniversary JLU on 4/7
Vin# 4/10
Paint stage 4/26
KZ status 4/28
Dealer notified me this morning (5/1) that it was loaded on a truck at 5:33pm yesterday and should be delivered over the weekend.
I can't wait!!!! :D
My original estimated ship date was 4/27, so it was super close to that time frame...

So excited for you!! Hoping my jeep comes this week too!

 

[nomographer]

Let's give this a try, defining "slow" as those orders that took more than 100 days from request to any update, consider features/properties ordered by "Relative slowness": IE, compared to all slow orders, how much more likely is the order to be slow if it has a given property.

A value of 1 (one) means it's equally likely to be slow (not interesting) and looks like this:

Likelihood overall, Relative slowness, P(slow), P(not slow)

100.00%

1.0

6.83%

93.17%

Basics, year: 2021

That's good. All 2021 orders are present, and ordering a 2021 doesn't change the probability of being slow.

Values less than 1 are not interesting as they decrease the likelihood of a slow order. Values greater than 1 are interesting:

Likelihood overall, Relative slowness, Model

1.73%	13.0	2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 392
4.04%	1.4	2021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited 4xe Sport
4.43%	1.3	2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 4xe Sport

Likelihood overall, Relative slowness, Zone

0.10%	14.6	Zone 15-Chrysler Corporation-Misc
0.58%	7.3	Zone 05-Chrysler Military Sales
0.87%	4.9	Zone 25-Canada-Alberta
1.64%	2.6	Zone 21-Canada-Ontario
0.77%	1.8	Zone 22-Canada-Quebec
6.45%	1.7	Zone 63-Dallas
6.54%	1.5	Zone 70-Phoenix Arizona

Zone 15 seems to be part of the "Executive Lease Program" and is "fourteen times more likely to be slow if the order is part of Zone 15". Likewise, Canada orders are "1.8 to 4.9 times more likely to take more than 100 days to see a build or sticker".

Likelihood overall, Relative slowness, Engine

1.73%	13.0	Basics, engine: 6.4L Hemi
36.38%	1.5	Basics, engine: 2.0L Turbo

Good, that matches reality. Because of the launch of the Hemi and 392, they have a very high chance of being "slow". They were accepting orders long before they intended to start builds, so all such orders started with a 55--60day delay in the first place. Otherwise engine doesn't matter much.

Likelihood overall, Relative slowness, Trim

42.93%	1.3	Basics, trim: Sport
17.52%	1.2	Basics, trim: Sahara

Again, engine and trim don't really matter. Being 1.3 times as likely to be slow... could be anything and probably isn't caused by the trim.

So here's where it gets tough. There are lots of features that are part of packages, but of course we place orders based on features. I've tried to remove some things that are particularly non-interesting.

Likelihood overall, Relative slowness, P(slow), P(fast), Property

0.19%	14.6	100.00%	0.00%	Dual Door Group w/ Premium Uppers
0.19%	14.6	100.00%	0.00%	Half Doors w/ Uppers
0.10%	14.6	100.00%	0.00%	Executive Lease Program
1.15%	13.4	91.67%	8.33%	Trailer Tow Package (but no Aux Switch issue?)
1.73%	13.0	88.89%	11.11%	17X7.5 Beadlock Capable Wheels
1.73%	13.0	88.89%	11.11%	6.4L V8 SRT HEMI MDS Engine
1.73%	13.0	88.89%	11.11%	392 Badge (and all related)
0.29%	9.8	66.67%	33.33%	MIC Fender Flares (2PCS FRT/1PC RR)
0.58%	7.3	50.00%	50.00%	Export O.M.S.C. U.S. Specifications
0.38%	7.3	50.00%	50.00%	Daytime Running Headlamps, Low Beam (Canada req?)
0.58%	4.9	33.33%	66.67%	MOPAR Windshield Tie Down
0.29%	4.9	33.33%	66.67%	Employee Purchase
0.29%	4.9	33.33%	66.67%	No Satellite Coverage HI/AK/PR/VI/GU
6.45%	3.7	25.37%	74.63%	Wizard Black Instrument Panel Bezels
0.77%	3.7	25.00%	75.00%	Nacho Clear Coat
10.20%	3.3	22.64%	77.36%	Active Noise Control System
3.27%	3.0	20.59%	79.41%	Canada Country Code
10.78%	2.7	18.75%	81.25%	2.72:1 Selec-Trac Full Time 4WD Sys
10.78%	2.7	18.75%	81.25%	8-Spd Auto 8HP75 Trans (Buy-Germany)
10.78%	2.7	18.75%	81.25%	Non-Lock Fuel Cap w/ Discriminator
1.54%	2.7	18.75%	81.25%	Ontario Province Code
0.58%	2.4	16.67%	83.33%	MOPAR Chrome Tube Steps
0.58%	2.4	16.67%	83.33%	Mopar Solid Sunbonnet Top
13.28%	2.1	14.49%	85.51%	220 Amp Alternator (not the 240)
17.42%	2.1	14.36%	85.64%	3.73 Rear Axle Ratio
100.00%	1.0	6.83%	93.17%	Basics, year: 2021

What this tells me is: Canada will be slow (correlates with thread stories). The half doors were accepting orders a month or two before they had them ready, and delayed the entire order. The trailer tow is weird (but the standard Aux Switches are part of the "Trailer Tow and HD Electrical Group" which is different). The beadlock capable wheel, probably part of the 392.

More interesting, perhaps: Mopar windshield tie down. Wizard black instrument bezels. Nacho (accepting orders before available?). The chrome tube steps, the sunbonnet. So yes, if you ordered a (solid) sunbonnet with your build, you were 2.4 times as likely to have at least a 100 day wait between the order and any build sheet / window sticker update. (Of course maybe it's because everyone who ordered a sunbonnet ordered a 392.)

The lag chart in the weekly post seems fairly accurate as far as standard build feature delays. This list is... perhaps not that surprising because it says there are very few things that drastically increase your odds of having a slow order. In a sense it's entirely luck or something we can't track.

I didn't include the 1--2 range here because the list is much longer, but something being "1.1 times as likely" doesn't mean much with this data. Just a few examples

6.26%	1.8	12.31%	87.69%	Cargo Compartment Floor Mat
19.44%	1.7	11.39%	88.61%	Steel Bumper Group
4.23%	1.7	11.36%	88.64%	D1-To-D Regress
4.23%	1.7	11.36%	88.64%	Hydro Blue Pearl Coat
19.35%	1.4	9.45%	90.55%	Body Color 3-Piece Hard Top
30.32%	1.3	8.57%	91.43%	Advanced Safety Group
1.15%	1.2	8.33%	91.67%	Mopar Mesh Sunbonnet Top

Of these, however, note that only the regress (which we can't detect until the build sheet posts) matches the weekly lag list. The other items don't impact "most" orders significantly, but this does say that the body colored hard top, for example, is just a little bit more likely to take forever (but again, it could be because people ordering 392s are more likely to order the colored hard top, for example).

I'll leave this here for now. Thoughts?